Comments on: Facebook viral marketing: When and why do apps “jump the shark?”

By: facebook viral apps

facebook viral apps — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:14:22 +0000

Nice post, It’s incredible to see how quickly this is all happening.
Because Facebook is all about friends, I think the apps that deliver true value to friendship networks (like the carpool and couchswap apps) are the ones to watch.

By: What I’m reading: Viral Loop by Adam Penenberg | Andrew Chen (@andrew_chen)

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:58:11 +0000

[...] Hitting saturation in viral networks Another important limitation is that there’s a finite number of users out there, and after you churn through all of them, all you have to look forward to is the long plateau. I first wrote about this in my post Facebook Viral Marketing: When and why do apps “jump the shark.” [...]

By: To my first 10,000 blog subscribers: Thank you! | Andrew Chen (@andrew_chen)

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 20:54:34 +0000

[...] Facebook viral marketing: When and why do apps “jump the shark?” [...]

By: FP NICOLAS

FP NICOLAS — Thu, 14 May 2009 00:44:55 +0000

Great article, thanks !

By: gargouri2001

gargouri2001 — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 14:48:55 +0000

Nice write up and blog , Thanks for sharing all those good info

best regards
John
http://thenewsempire.com/Technologies/

By: How to measure if users love your product using cohorts and revisit rates | Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 15:00:56 +0000

[...] results – in particular, without the proper mechanics in place, it’s easy to hit the “shark fin” user curve, as well as the death spiral caused by reverse Metcalfe’s Law. In both cases, once the core [...]

By: Kati

Kati — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 17:06:44 +0000

Hi Andrew!

I played a bit with your excel-sheet and your equation and explored that your results in excel doesn't match with your posted equations. You never used something like ^t.
In excel you use something like
u(t)=u(t-1)*((1-u(t-1)/carring_capacity)*conv*i)+u(t-1)

Where is the mistake?

By: Juan

Juan — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:48:30 +0000

Hey, i just found out about this theory on Google I/O. I will defintlly look for more of syour developments. I have made a post about organic growth vs viral growth on my blog. Is acctualy in spanish, so you might find it interesting:)

http://www.lawebdejuan.com.ar/2008/07/crecimiento-viral-vs-crecimiento.html

Awesome work!

By: Nick Jag - Facebook Marketer

Nick Jag - Facebook Marketer — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 05:01:26 +0000

Definitely agree with you Andrew, retention is really important when developing a new Facebook app, or any app for that matter. Great math, great stats, and great post.

By: Joshua March

Joshua March — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 18:43:46 +0000

Hi Andrew,

I did a talk a while back on your findings to the Facebook Developer Garage in London, which I help organise. After posting about my talk ended having an discussion with a reader over some inputs which create a saw-tooth in the results, you might find the conversation interesting - http://www.joshuamarch.co.uk/2008/04/jumping-shark.html

Cheers,

Josh

By: Sean Murphy

Sean Murphy — Mon, 19 May 2008 05:24:22 +0000

Great post, one thing that struck me is that it doesn’t capture the “competitive equilibria” issues that may also occur. Your social network isn’t the only one recruiting, so that there is competition for the total carrying capacity. I think there may also be a bandwagon effect, where users depart smaller groups (in the context of a particular demographic/market/segment that you measure with your carrying capacity) for larger ones because they offer more benefits. But I agree with your basic modeling approach.

By: NevaehEastkbff

NevaehEastkbff — Mon, 05 May 2008 13:17:22 +0000

This is good methad and good story.

NevaehEastkbff

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By: desmondhaynes

desmondhaynes — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 10:43:51 +0000

I didn't understand some of the maths bit - but understand the implications loud and clear. Thanks for the post!
-DH
Visit my tech blog @ http://techrunch.blogspot.com/

By: Neil @ FacebookInsight.com

Neil @ FacebookInsight.com — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 00:02:14 +0000

Great post.

Clearly you've mapped the short lifecycle of most Facebook applications at this point. This kind of theory would hold for any sort of engaging application online. The anomalies do exist though, like Top Friends or Compare People, where constant innovation keeps users coming back for more. I imagine this is what we'll see after Facebook shakes down existing applications with the new Profile setup.

By: Adam Durfee

Adam Durfee — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 21:08:18 +0000

Any particular reason why you took this approach instead of applying the Bass model to this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model