1) based on uniques, i probably wouldn’t take that bet.

2) based on page views, i’d be tempted, but would probably still decline.

3) based on user engagement by other measures than page views, and based on the value of the respective demographic(s), i’d take that bet in a heartbeat — and in fact, probably don’t even need to wait a year… i bet they win now on that basis.

as usual, the measuring stick is what matters most.

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

ps – regardless: make the bet 2 years, and i’d take it on any metric you choose.

The one thing — ONE THING — MySpace still has going for it.. it’s the place that every music band/artist has a profile and actually keeps their concert dates up-to-date on. There’s likely 300,000 of them at least — it’d be really tough to get them all to move to a Facebook account; although if the users all move over there, they’ll follow (possibly; but I doubt it, as music bands aren’t the most technical of people — majority of them I’m saying, and that is an assumption).

I have a myspace and FB account, and linkedin, friendster, etc… but I only keep up with myspace and FB .. it was just myspace, but now that FB has been takin over, I’ve been spending time there as well.

FB is going to explode this year with their platform. MySpace needs their entire site rewritten IMO — the thing is horrid; I don’t know how it still works even. And they don’t want anyone to make money via their site, so all the widget guys are going to focus on FB, and FB will get promotion EVERYWHERE from these app developers [iLike, etc], so more and more people are going to be like, “man, i need to get on FB”. Then they’ll see how much better FB is than MS.. er, not the once-evil microsoft, but rather myspace [now evil w/their closed infrastructure to app developers].

rant, done.

facebook = winner in 1 year. I’ll ship you some buffalo wings if i lose; you can ship me a chipotle burrito with a jamba juice smoothie. We don’t have either here in buffalo.

ap